- Electricity demands for AI systems will rise sharply, prompting deals between tech companies and governments.
- Middle Eastern countries will become more important in the global AI landscape due to oil funding.
- Public disillusionment with AI capabilities is expected after failing to live up to the hype.
- Companies will build even bigger AI models in 2024, with incremental improvements.
- Policymakers will finally move from vague principles to concrete details on regulating AI.
- The digital divide threatens to exacerbate global inequality if some groups lack AI access.
Bracing for AI’s Wild Ride in 2024
In 2023, the world was caught off guard by the meteoric rise of chatbot ChatGPT. Even OpenAI underestimated the public enthusiasm for their new AI system. Over 180 million users later, the difficulty of predicting AI’s trajectory has become abundantly clear.
But the ChatGPT phenomenon was just one unexpected twist on AI’s wild ride last year. A heated AI arms race between companies and countries, alarming government hearings about “doomsday scenarios,” and a dramatic overthrow of leadership at a top AI firm – these events would have been nearly impossible to foresee 12 months ago.
AI’s swift technological progress, paired with the extremely varied societal reactions, makes prognostication in this area dicey at best. However, a panel of five experts bravely offered their insights on what to expect in the AI sphere in 2024.
Electricity demands from power-hungry data centers could become the next physical manifestation of the AI boom, suggests Dan Hendrycks, executive director of the Center for AI Safety. Data centers currently account for around 1% of global electricity usage, with 20% of that power spent on AI systems. As these systems expand, so too will their immense energy needs.
Companies may try to broker deals with governments to guarantee the necessary electricity supply, Hendrycks says. AI companies could have private talks with government leaders about securing power for their exponentially expanding data centers. Oil-rich Middle Eastern countries seem poised to become more relevant players in the global AI race due to their willingness to fund these initiatives.
The Unpredictable Path Ahead for AI
The expert predictions paint a picture of continued unpredictability in the AI sphere through 2024. Technological capabilities will continue advancing rapidly, perhaps even faster than society can keep up. Governments worldwide were caught flat-footed by chatbot sensations like ChatGPT, and are still scrambling to regulate an industry evolving at lightning speed.
The public and media also struggle to moderate expectations around new AI releases. Breathless hype is inevitably followed by disillusionment when promises fail to match reality. This boom-bust cycle looks set to repeat next year as companies unveil even bigger models.
However, the experts provide some glimmers of hope. Policymakers seem to finally be moving from vague principles to concrete details on regulation. Closing the digital divide also demands urgent attention to prevent AI from exacerbating inequality.
The path ahead remains obscured for AI developers and society alike. But the challenges now at least seem clearer – even if solutions continue to lie frustratingly out of reach. Perhaps the best we can hope for is to strap in and brace for the next unexpected twist or turn on this wild ride.
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