- The adoption of new AI systems faces critical tests in 2024 that could significantly impact tech stock optimism.
- Defense contractors must rapidly innovate as governments shift from hardware to agile tech like robotics, with Trump’s possible election complicating spending.
- OPEC+ risks losing more oil market share to rising US output in 2024, challenging its price control efforts.
- High interest rates threaten to slow the pace of renewable energy projects in 2024.
- The luxury goods boom is cooling, with top brands gaining share over smaller players, and China remaining crucial for growth.
- More private equity firms may go public in 2024 due to high stock prices, even as regulators increase oversight of retirement money flooding into the sector.
Business Trends : AI
The biggest tech story of 2024 will likely be artificial intelligence (AI) and whether the new generative systems are ready for widespread adoption beyond tech companies. Major consumer internet firms like Google and Microsoft are already actively embedding AI into their free services. However, it is still unclear whether average consumers will pay a premium for the technology. Moreover, business take-up is expected to start slowly due to issues like hallucination, where AI systems make up false information. Many companies are still just exploring how to leverage the technology to boost productivity. If adoption is slower than anticipated in 2024, it could seriously dampen the recent stock market euphoria and optimism around AI’s potential.
The defense industry is rapidly evolving from a heavy reliance on hardware like tanks and ships to increased investments in more agile systems like robotics, drones, and AI-powered sensors. Large, established contractors that have dominated the industry for decades must now scramble to keep pace with the rapid advances being made by smaller, more technology-focused rivals. Looking ahead, governments will likely continue shifting their procurement dollars away from traditional suppliers and towards innovative startups that can quickly deliver new autonomous capabilities. This trend has profound implications for an industry that has often moved slowly. If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he could potentially upend recent increases in defense spending, both in the US and globally. This would likely force Europe in particular to follow through on its promises to fund more of its own military capabilities.
After cutting oil production substantially throughout 2023, the OPEC+ cartel now risks permanently losing more global market share in 2024 as US output surges to new highs. The US shale boom has driven non-OPEC supply up drastically, leading the International Energy Agency to estimate that OPEC+ now only controls 51% of the total market – the lowest level since the expanded cartel formed in 2016. With production from non-cartel members projected to expand further in 2024, it raises serious questions around how long key players like Saudi Arabia can afford to keep ceding share in a bid to prop up prices. So far cuts have failed to lift oil much beyond $80 per barrel. Ultimately, OPEC+ may have to shift strategies to compete with surging US oil.
Persistent high interest rates could continue hampering clean energy projects in 2024, dangerously slowing the pace of the global energy transition if they remain elevated as some economists predict. The offshore wind industry is already facing acute financial challenges that led sector leader Ørsted and others to take major writedowns on project portfolios in 2023 amid rising costs. Constructing large-scale renewable energy facilities has become markedly more expensive over the past year. And with inflation and rates expected to stay high, 2024 could bring another tough year for making progress on vital next-generation clean power.
The rapid sales growth in luxury goods driven by the pandemic is clearly cooling across segments like watches, leather goods, and jewelry. Within the slowing market, top-tier brands like LVMH and Hermes will likely continue gaining market share in 2024 over their smaller rivals. These leading groups have mastered the ability to raise prices without denting demand. At the same time, “experiential luxury” categories like upscale hospitality, restaurants, and travel are expected to outpace growth in physical goods. China also remains absolutely vital to powering growth across luxury long-term. Although Chinese sales slowed recently due to lockdowns, Bain still estimates China will represent 40% of personal luxury sales by 2030 given the expansion of its wealthy population. If China’s economy meaningfully deteriorates, it would massively dampen the overall outlook.
Major private equity groups like Blackstone and Apollo Global have now evolved into public companies themselves. This transformation has propelled their stock prices to record highs and embedded them firmly into the portfolios of ordinary investors. The success and acceptance of private equity in public markets is also tempting others like CVC Capital to pursue IPOs in 2024. However, regulators globally have started to grow concerned with the flood of retirement savings and insurance premiums entering the private equity ecosystem in search of higher yields, rather than traditional corporate buyouts. Private equity presents risks to overall financial stability if normally conservative insurers end up overexposed to volatile assets. As groups like BlackRock further push into alternatives, the ties between private investing and the public sphere will deepen.
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